Insights on the trend of the Novel Coronavirus 2019 series in some Small Island Developing States: A Thinning-based Modelling Approach

Undeniably, the Novel Coronavirus 2019, (COVID-19), has disrupted routine functioning of global economic and social activities. In particular, vulnerable economies such as Small Island Developing states (SIDs) are facing unprecedented health financial crisis. critical situation, some in-depth statistical models can be helpful for proper planning in terms identifying factors that influence significantly number infected COVID-19 cases forecasting. Modelling series is a challenge since severely over-dispersed with lots oscillations. This paper attempts new integer-valued time model based on auto-regressive structure (INAR), an oscillating Weighted Cosine Geometric (WCG) innovation term. The parameters proposed constitute regression effects serial auto-correlation coefficients estimated via likelihood moment-based approaches. Monte Carlo simulation experiments implemented to assess performance consistency different resulting estimators. Thereon, INAR-WCG applied various SIDs countries include Singapore, Cape Verde, Bahrain, Mauritius Maldives. findings reveal transmission mode Government Stringency Index most influential. fitting forecasting, provides slightly better RMSEs than other competing INAR-based processes.